基于IRI-2012模型广州地区f_0F_2实测与预测的对比分析

利用广州台站(23.2°N,113.3°E)的实测数据和IRI-2012模型提供的预测数据,对比分析了2013年广州地区f_0F2的变化特征.结果表明,IRI-2012模型能够较好预测该地区f_0F_2的变化趋势,并且CCIR参数得到的预测值比URSI参数更接近实测值;预测值与实测值存在系统偏差,在11:00 LT-06:00 LT时段,观测值均比预测值大,其他时段则相反.在日落后至午夜前时段,预测值与实测值有较大差距.绝对偏差的极值点通常出现在20:00 LT左右,最大超过4 MHz.相对偏差变化比较明显的时段是午夜后至凌晨;在02:00 LT或04:00 LT及06:00 LT附近,可能会出现双误差峰值点,最大超过0.4;但在σ变化很大的20:00 LT附近,相对偏差却变化不大.夜间增强现象会使得偏差增大,导致预测值不能很好反映实测f_0F2的变化.     

The solar cosmic ray ground-level enhancements on 20 January 2005 and 13 December 2006

Close to the current solar activity minimum, two large solar cosmic ray ground-level enhancements (GLE) were recorded by the worldwide network of neutron monitors (NM). The enormous GLE on 20 January 2005 is the largest increase observed since the famous GLE in 1956, and the solar cosmic-ray event recorded on 13 December 2006 is among the largest in solar cycle 23. From the recordings of the NMs during the two GLEs, we determined the characteristics of the solar particle flux near Earth.     

Ionospheric perturbations due to earthquakes as determined from VLF and GPS-TEC data analysis at Agra,India

Employing SoftPAL receiver, amplitude variations of VLF transmitter signals NWC (19.8?kHz) and NPM (21.4?kHz) are analyzed at Agra station in India (Geograph. lat. 27.2°N, long. 78°E) ±15?days from five major earthquakes of magnitude M?=?6.9–8.5 occurred in Indian subcontinent during the years 2011–2013. We apply nighttime fluctuation (NF) method and show that in almost all cases the trend decreases and dispersion and NF increase on the same days corresponding to each earthquake about 11–15?days prior to the main shock. Assuming that the ionospheric perturbations are caused by atmospheric gravity waves (AGW), we also calculate AGW modulation index for each case and find its values increased on the days amplitude fluctuations take place. Its value is decreased in one case only where the perturbations may be attributed to penetration of seismogenic electric field.In order to support the above results we also present GPS-TEC data analyzed by us corresponding to three of the above earthquakes. We study the TEC anomalies (unusual enhancements) and find that in one case the precursory period is almost the same as that found in NF method.     

Properties of solar X-ray flares and proton event forecasting

X-ray flares and acceleration processes are in one complex of sporadic solar events (together with CMEs, radio bursts, magnetic field dissipation and reconnection). This supposes the connection (if not physical, but at least statistical) between characteristics of the solar energetic proton events and flares. The statistical analysis indicates that probability and magnitude of the near-Earth proton enhancement depends heavily on the flare importance and their heliolongitude. These relations may be used for elaboration of the forecasting models, which allow us to calculate probability of the solar proton events from the X-ray observations.     

Investigation of Satellite Trace (ST) and Multi-reflected Echo (MRE) ionogram signatures and its possible correlation to nighttime spread F development from Cyprus over the solar mini-max (2009–2016)

Multi-reflected echoes (MREs) and satellite traces (STs) are referred in literature as ionogram signatures of Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) which is a phenomenon that apparently drives spread F development mainly at nighttime mid-latitude ionosphere. A long-term statistical study has been undertaken to investigate the morphological aspect of these signatures over the lower midlatitude European station of Nicosia, Cyprus (35.19°N, 33.38°E geographic; magnetic dip. 29.38°N) by inspecting all ionograms recorded by the DPS-4D digisonde in the interval 2009–2016. The results underline the systematic manifestation of these TID signatures over Cyprus with a possible (although not quite clear) solar activity dependence and a distinctive seasonal and diurnal occurrence rate with a seasonal peak of STs during summer and of MREs during January to April. Based on the experimental results of the present study, the seasonal occurrence rate of MREs and STs is found to increase by 75% and 56% during high solar activity periods. Satellite traces are well known ionogram signatures of TIDs and mostly correlated to the nighttime spread F formation. The occurrence of mid-latitude spread Fs over European longitude sector normally increases during summer. The occurrences of TIDs are also prominent at this interval of the year over nighttime mid-latitude ionosphere. The presence of MREs as an ionogram signature of TIDs over mid-latitude ionosphere is unique in nature.     

Spectral characteristics of electron fluxes at L < 2 under the Radiation Belts

The paper presents the analysis of experimental data on electron fluxes with energies 10 keV–10 MeV. Data were obtained during 1978–2005 years in different space experiments (COSMOS-900, MIR Space Station, ACTIVE, SAMPEX, CORONAS-I, CORONAS-F, NOAA POES-17, TATYANA and others). Two areas of electron flux enhancements are studied in the paper: the near-equatorial (L < 1.2) zone and the middle-latitude (1.2 < L < 1.9) zone. It is shown that electron flux enhancements are regularly registered at L < 2 and the observed formations have some typical features. Electron peaks at L < 1.2 appear sporadically while peaks at 1.2 < L < 1.9 are observed regularly. The approximations of spectra by several functions including kappa-function are presented.     

低纬电离层f0F2夜间增强的模拟研究

以太阳活动低年冬季为代表,利用二维中低纬电离层理论模式模拟低纬电离层ｆ０Ｆ２夜间增强现象,探索在赤道异常驼峰纬度附近形成该现象的可能因素或物理机制,模式在给定磁子午面内解等离子体输运方程,给出电子及各离子的浓度,速度的时空分布。在所考察条件下,低纬驼峰纬度附近ｆ０Ｆ２模式值夜间出现了明显的增强特征。     

Identification of high energy solar particle signals on the Mexico City neutron monitor database

We performed a search for ground level solar cosmic ray enhancements on the full five minute database of the Mexico City neutron monitor using wavelet filters and two different statistical tests. We present a detailed analysis of the time series of November 2, 1992, where we found a previously unreported increment matching the onset time of the impulsive phase of GLE 54, thus providing evidence of an effective detection of high energy solar cosmic rays.     

The solar-terrestrial event of 23 February 1956

The solar flare of 23 February 1956 and the resulting geophysical disturbance ranks as one of the most remarkable solar-terrestrial events of the twentieth century. It sparked many papers and has seldom been equalled. Fifty years after the International Geophysical Year, it seems timely to review the observations of the event from today’s perspective, and to draw on the recollections of scientists who were active at the time.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.